A Computational Reference Model to Support Decision-Making for Emergency Management Based on Visual Analytics
Computational Model, Visual Analytics, Emergency Management.
Background: The number of emergencies around the world has been increasing in recent years. No emergency is the same as the previous and the next. Emergency Management (EM) refers to the activity of dealing with emergency tasks in different phases and iterations. People working in an emergency are generally under stress to make the right decision at the right time. They have to process large amounts of data and to assimilate the received information in an intuitive and visual way. We found that information overload as well as non-dedicated information are problems in Emergency Management (EM). Visual Analytics (VA) is potentially useful to analyze and understand the huge amount of data produced in an emergency. However, we found that the full potential of VA is not being exploited in EM. Objective: We seek to develop a conceptual model for using VA in EM. This model incorporates themes that are currently under-exploited, to better support decision-making in EM. The model aims to help visualization designers to create effective VA interfaces that in turn help emergency managers to make quick and assertive decisions with these interfaces. Methods: We performed a long-term multi-method study. First, we carried out a systematic mapping study to analyze the available visualization tools and their applications in EM. To complement this information, we carried out appraisal of official documents, ethnographic studies, questionnaires and focus groups during large events held in Brazil (e.g., Soccer World Cup and Olympics Games). Then, we analyzed actual tools that produces emergency information visualization and we interviewed professionals experienced in EM. We crosschecked and analyzed this data qualitatively using the coding technique. We identified the relationships between the visual needs and other major themes of influence for EM. We used our findings aligned with VA concepts to develop our model for EM visualization. Results: We evaluated our proposal using an exploratory study in a Brazilian Command and Control Center, comparing the available tools against our model. The visualizations that were designed with the support of the model had 73.4\% higher scores, 25\% equal scores and only 1.6\% lower scores than the ones designed without it. We believe that the main contribution of this work is to introduce the model to conceive and evaluate the effectiveness of VA in EM scenarios. The results of the dissemination of this model will foment the research on the use of VA in EM. We hope that C2 Centers incorporate the use of the proposed model in their routine; if it helps in timely and assertive decision-making, the quality of the service provided to society will improve. The ultimate contribution of our work is the potential reduction of financial and, above all, human losses in emergencies.