Banca de DEFESA: VINICIUS FERREIRA DE ARAÚJO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : VINICIUS FERREIRA DE ARAÚJO
DATE: 28/06/2022
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: https://meet.google.com/oto-jdjo-boh
TITLE:

TAX MULTIPLIER AND ECONOMIC CYCLES: A ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN FISCAL POLICY POST-REAL PLAN

KEY WORDS:

fiscal multiplier; economic cycles; GMM.

PAGES: 90
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

Understanding the true effect of government spending on increasing aggregate demand is a matter of fundamental importance for economic policy makers. Studies indicate that the magnitude of fiscal multipliers varies depending on the method and time frame. The objective of this work is to verify if the fiscal multiplier has a different magnitude than the one dependent on the phase of the economic cycles of the Brazilian economy. The behavior of the government expenditure multiplier was sought using monthly data from the Brazilian economy between 1995 and 2019 based on the Generalized Least Squares (GMM) method to test the behavior of fiscal multipliers in the phases of economic cycles. The results found show that an expansionary fiscal policy is different depending on the phase of the economic cycle and has the ability to increase GDP in times of recession, for the context and transition period. Using an alternative economic activity variable, the multiplier remains positive and relevant, making those known by the proposed analysis robust.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interno - 2686822 - ANDRE LUIS MOTA DOS SANTOS
Externo à Instituição - CLEITON SILVA DE JESUS - UEFS
Presidente - 1743433 - GISELE FERREIRA TIRYAKI