Banca de DEFESA: CARLOS EDUARDO CARNEIRO LIMA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : CARLOS EDUARDO CARNEIRO LIMA
DATE: 11/03/2022
TIME: 15:30
LOCAL: Faculdade de Economia da UFBA
TITLE:

EFFECTS OF DIRECTED CREDIT PERFORMANCE IN INDICATORS OF CREDIT SEGMENTS AND BANKING SECTOR IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 2011 AND 2021

KEY WORDS:

Directed credit. Free credit. Banking sector. Financial market. Capital formation. Macroeconomics. Covid-19 pandemic.

PAGES: 328
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

Faced with a historical context of restriction of capital in Brazil, a broad program of subsidized credit was structured and specifically directed to certain sectors, whose better conditions derive, above all, from fiscal transfers to public banks. Consequently, the free segment and the private banking sector may find themselves more capital constrained. Aware of the possible different impacts of the program on the analyzed segments/sectors, this work proposes a comparative study of the effects of directed credit on indicators of the credit segments and the banking sector in Brazil between 2011 and 2021. In this sense, the analysis comprises theoretical, historical and empirical aspects. Thus, a study of the fundamentals of the credit market is included: the capital formation, which is based on intertemporal preference and whose association with economically virtuous processes depends largely on the performance of the financial intermediaries. Then, after characterization and exposure of statistics, the credit market is analyzed within the historical-economic context since the advent of the Real Plan. Subsequently, to test the relationships with macroeconomic indicators and better understand the transmission mechanisms of the effects of directed credit, the graphical correlations, the impulse-response functions, after estimation via Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs), and the results of linear regressions are considered. As expected, free/private credit is more negatively associated with the Selic Rate, while directed/public credit is more positively associated with the nominal result. On the other hand, the correlation with the capital stock suggests that directed/public credit demonstrates an eventual greater absorption. Regarding the relationship between directed credit and indicators of the credit segments and the banking sector, apart from the graphical correlations, the impulse-response functions are analysed, after estimation via VECMs. In the credit segments, the impacts on the portfolios are considered at absolute terms and in percentage ratio to GDP, in the levels of concessions, in the average monthly and annual interest rates, in the financial spreads, in the average terms of the portfolio and of the concessions, in the Cost of Credit Indicators (ICCs), in the ICCs spreads and in the arrear and default rates. In the banking sector, the effects on classified portfolios, on the aggregates of risk grades from AA to C, from D to G and H, on the provision indices, on total assets, on net equity and in the balances between the creditor and debtor result accounts are considered. With the exception of the last two variables, the results tend to converge on the idea of greater benefit (or lesser prejudice) to the directed segment and the public sector. However, bad results are also seen in these markets in the long run, especially in the quality of the portfolios (indicating adverse selection) and on total assets. In general, the indicators of the directed segment and the public sector tend to improve in the phase of directed credit growth, although it is also common to observe improvements in the contraction phase. On the other hand, the relationships with the indicators of the free segment and the private sector are shown to be inversely proportional. Finally, in periods of capital stock growth, the market, as a whole, tends to improvement in its indicators.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1813571 - CARLOS FREDERICO AZEREDO UCHOA
Externo à Instituição - CLEITON SILVA DE JESUS - UEFS
Interno - 1534480 - HENRIQUE TOME DA COSTA MATA