The influence of climate change, land use, and landscape, on the potential distribution of the yellow-breasted capuchin monkey
Extinction; Geographic distribution; Anthropogenic activities; Spatial analysis; Conservation; Northeastern primates
Human activities have caused widespread changes to natural ecosystems in recent centuries, and continue to severely threaten biodiversity around the world. Among the consequences of these activities we can mention changes in climate and land use cover. Climate change has contributed to marked changes in the geographic distribution of species throughout the evolutionary history of the planet, being considered one of the greatest threats to species diversity, and causing a serious impoverishment of biodiversity. The change in land cover influences the availability of suitable habitat and, consequently, the potential population size of the species. Therefore, our objective was to predict the effects of climate, landscape changes, and both together on the potential distribution of the yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos), which is a critically endangered species. For that, we carried out, separately, an ecological niche modeling (climate model), a habitat adequacy (landscape model), and an analysis taking into account these two factors together (additive model). In addition, we verified the landscape characteristics of areas considered suitable, in the long term, for the occurrence of this species, indicating geographic areas that, possibly, present favorable conditions for the species to remain in the next 50 years. For each analysis we calculated: Adequate total area size; percentage of forest cover; conservation status of the species; percentage of the area protected by conservation units. Finally, we verified the suitability and percentage of forest cover in 14 of the 15 areas considered important for the conservation of S. xanthosternos, defined within the scope of the National Action Plan for the Conservation of Northeastern Primates (PAN Primatas do Nordeste). We show that the south of the State of Bahia will be responsible, in the long term, for maintaining viable areas for the occurrence of S. xanthosternos. On the other hand, our analyzes predict, in the next 50 years, a local extinction of S. xanthosternos within the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes. We also show that the areas that will remain adequate, in the next 50 years, will be less complex, and the shape with the lowest perimeter/area ratio, aggregates, will be increasingly continuous and large, making the occurrence of S. xanthosternos in small and isolated fragments each time. increasingly rare. Serra do Conduru, Teimoso-Lontras-Una, and the Reserva Ecológica Michelin proved to be the most suitable areas to maintain populations of S. xanthosternos in the long term. Our results demonstrate the importance of the joint use and application of climate and landscape models to improve and increase the consistency of assessments, especially with regard to the definition of priority areas for conservation. Information on landscape features, of areas considered suitable for S. xanthosternos, is useful for conservation measures to be taken before extinction thresholds are reached.