Banca de DEFESA: MARCUS VINICIUS CARVALHO FAGUNDES

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARCUS VINICIUS CARVALHO FAGUNDES
DATE: 19/11/2021
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: videoconferência na plataforma RNP (sala PEI-UFBA)
TITLE:

Supply chain risk management modeling in the oil and gas industry

KEY WORDS:

supply chain risk management; MCDM; MCDA; artificial intelligence; supplier selection risks; supply chain risk assessment; Fuzzy AHP; supply chain risk management system.

PAGES: 246
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Produção
SUMMARY:

Supply chains are silent engines of economic globalization. There is a broad consensus in the literature and in professional practice that supply chains are increasingly complex and vulnerable to risks that cause disturbances, disruptions, and critical reactions from society. In this thesis it has been aimed to analyze the opportunities and limitations of a modeling based on multicriteria decision-making/analysis and artificial intelligence (MCDM/A-AI) for supply chain risk management (SCRM), developed through systematic selection, validation and system testing of the hybrid Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) method applied in the oil and natural gas industry. Specifically, it was sought to: a. carry out the state of the art by systematic review of the literature network on the SCRM modeling; b. propose and validate a new computational system for supplier selection considering risks based on the Fuzzy AHP method; and, c. propose and systematically test a holistic framework for assessment of typical and sustainable risks of the supply chain with computational support of the Fuzzy AHP method. To this end, an applied research was conducted, with exploratory, descriptive and predictive purposes, of combined approach [qualitative and quantitative], using literature research, theoretical and conceptual development, modeling and case studies. The state of the art of SCRM modeling, performed using bibliometric methods and tools, allowed for the establishment of a systemic understanding of the flow of research in the field over time, providing future research directions. The analysis and interpretation of research gaps and trends in the field enabled the identification, selection, and systematic implementation of the conceptual, mathematical, and computational modeling developed. The proposition and validation of a new computational system for supplier selection based on the Fuzzy Extended AHP (FEAHP) method constituted a proof of concept to verify the feasibility of implementing the SCRM modeling. From the case study of an oil and natural gas company with onshore assets, it was found that the modeling of the FEAHP computational approach was able to automate the supplier selection process in a rational, flexible and agile way, meeting all the necessary performance requirements, thus promoting the choice of the best suppliers in an environment of risk and uncertainty. After the validation of the developed software, the proposition and system test of a holistic framework for the assessment of typical and sustainable [multidimensional risks] supply chain risks with computational support of the FEAHP method was performed. Through multiple case studies of ten oil and natural gas companies with onshore operations [mainly in mature and/or marginal fields], it was found that the results of risk identification and assessment contribute to the creation of risk mitigation and control strategies [predictive action versus proactive action], fostering the development of a Supply Chain Risk Management System. Finally, the results of the system test of the FEAHP tool showed that all its elements combine correctly and present an effective overall performance, promoting in an integral, flexible, failure-free and/or error-free way the improvement of supply chain risk assessment. It was concluded that the various opportunities and/or potentialities of using an MCDM/A-AI based modeling for SCRM overtake the main limitations and/or challenges. Despite the restrictions of this thesis, it is admitted that it contributes to the fruitful field of SCRM research and professional practice by promoting the improvement of the design, understanding, reflection and practice of supply chain network and operations management.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1220619 - FRANCISCO GAUDENCIO MENDONCA FREIRES
Interno - 1523793 - SILVIO ALEXANDRE BEISL VIEIRA DE MELO
Externo à Instituição - Bruno dos Santos Silvestre
Externo à Instituição - Fernando Buarque de Lima Neto
Externo à Instituição - HELDER GOMES COSTA
Externo à Instituição - ROBSON DA SILVA MAGALHAES